French April Business Confidence Rises More Than Expected

Thursday, April 23, 2009

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned Tuesday that total losses from the ongoing global economic downturn could reach $4 trillion and the global financial system "remains under severe stress".

Though the IMF had predicted total losses from the credit crunch to hit $1 trillion a year ago, the lender in its latest Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) estimates losses incurred by banks alone would be over $2.7 trillion.

"In this GFSR, estimates for write-downs have been extended to include other mature market-originated assets and, while the information underpinning these scenarios is more uncertain, such estimates suggest write-downs could reach a total of around $4 trillion, about two-thirds of which would be incurred by banks," the IMF said in its Global Financial Stability Report.

The IMF report blamed the worsening base-case scenario for economic growth for losses suffered by banks, adding that the shrinking economic activity has put further pressure on banks' balance sheets as asset values continue to degrade, threatening their capital adequacy and further discouraging fresh lending.

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Dollar Falls against Yen

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

U.S. dollar has already entered the Christmas flat market zone and is trading on the very low volumes. During the Asian session today it managed to lose just 0.1% to Japanese yen as the latter gained from the good news from Merrill Lynch.

Yesterday USD/JPY hit its monthly maximum level at 114.48 - the rate that hasn’t been seen since November 7. Today USD/JPY touched 113.92 and then retreated up slightly- to 114.15 and is trading very slowly now.

The news that Merrill Lynch is going to receive about $6.2 billion funds from two investment groups added a much needed optimism to the U.S. financial sector. In its turn the positive reactions on this news added confidence to the carry traders strengthening yen against major high-yielders.

There is really no much to expect out of the currency rates movement during the holidays period. But it is worth to mention that dollar is ending this year with bullish trend wave and the first half of January 2008 will probably set the mood for the next year’s Forex trading.

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